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Record Low U.S. Birth Rate and Retirements Will Result in Contracting U.S. Prosperity, If Unaddressed
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Jorge Loweree
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<p>
The U.S. population is aging quickly. Baby boomers are retiring en
masse and Americans are having far fewer children, on average, than
any other time in our history. The median age in this country was
38 as of 2017. America now runs the risk of becoming an aging
nation with few youthful replacements if we fail to address our
demographic needs in a meaningful, long-term manner.
</p>
<p>
According to the
<a href=”https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/report004.pdf”>
Center for Disease Control and Prevention
</a>
, the general fertility rate in the U.S. in 2016 fell to 60.2
births per 1,000 women. This is down three percent from the prior
year, and it represents a record low for the country.
</p>
<p>
This is likely due to a combination of factors including increased
use of long-term birth control, more women attending college, as
well as financial considerations.
</p>
<p>
Many people in the U.S. decided to delay having children at the
beginning of the decade due to fallout from the Great Recession.
</p>
<p>
It now appears that that many of them are putting off having kids
entirely.
</p>
<p>
This is one of the reasons that recent U.S. Census Bureau
<a
href=”https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-counties-total.html”
>
figures
</a>
estimate that approximately 44 percent of all counties in the U.S.
experienced a decline in population in 2018.
</p>
<p>
The impact of these changes is compounded by the fact that baby
boomers are retiring in significant numbers. In fact,
<a
href=”https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2018/demo/P25_1144.pdf”
>
all baby boomers will have reached retirement age
</a>
by 2030.
</p>
<p>
This combination of factors will create unique challenges in the
management of our social welfare programs and the health of our
real estate markets. These demographic changes also highlight the
significant economic contributions of immigrants throughout the
U.S.
</p>
<p>
By 2035, there
<a
href=”http://immigrationimpact.com/2019/04/15/immigrants-taxes-save-social-security-system/”
>
won’t be enough people working
</a>
in the U.S. to help fund the Social Security Administration’s (SSA)
obligations for the population that is retiring. This problem could
have a cascading impact on future generations of retirees.
</p>
<p>
The large-scale retirement of baby boomers is also creating
complications in our housing market that could be addressed by
immigrants.
</p>
<p>
Baby boomers have historically had a taste for large homes in
suburban areas. Many of them are now looking to downsize as they
reach retirement, but they are
<a
href=”https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/mcmansions-millennials/”
>
having a difficult time finding buyers for their McMansions in
the suburbs
</a>
.
</p>
<p>
Younger generations simply prefer to sacrifice space in exchange
for living closer to city centers, but immigrants could step in to
fill this gap as they tend to favor larger homes that are conducive
to multi-generational living.
</p>
<p>
Census Figures confirm that the overall share of population growth
attributable to immigrants was 48 percent in 2018, and more than
half of U.S. metro areas
<a
href=”https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-total-metro-and-micro-statistical-areas.html”
>
gained a greater share
</a>
of residents from outside of the U.S. than they did from other
parts of the country.
</p>
<p>
Finally, nearly ten percent of the counties in the U.S. grew in
population primarily due to immigration last year. Immigrants are
clearly helping to fuel the growth that is necessary to ensure the
health and stability of our local economies, including our real
estate markets.
</p>
<p>
It is in our economic best interest to ensure that our population
continues to grow. Immigration alone will not address all the
fiscal issues facing our social welfare programs and economy more
broadly, but they play an important role in reducing the economic
effects of our aging population. Baby boomers are increasingly
dependent on them to help pay for their retirement and buy their
homes as they retire.
</p>
<p>
Any efforts to further restrict immigration would erode the
financial stability of these programs and continue the aging of the
American population.
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<p>This post originally appeared on <a href=”http://immigrationimpact.com/2019/04/26/record-low-u-s-birth-rate-and-retirements-will-result-in-contracting-u-s-prosperity-if-unaddressed/#.XUiDOehKhPa” target=”_blank”>Immigration Impact</a>. Reprinted with permission.</p>
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About The Author<br/>
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<p>
<b>Jorge Loweree</b> is author at Immigration Impact.
</p>
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